Weather Results Matter (or not?)

*I want to point out my “typo” in the headline, but only as a query to anyone on what term describes this sentence. As in an English subject, is that a pun or what – using the wrong spelling in a sentence to convey a central and cryptic message alike?

So: the weather turned into massive doses of precipitation which lasted till around three. At which point I was heading towards the board game Meetup. 

The point of the cryptic headline is to point out the obvious:

Weather forecasters have practically the most pointless job on this planet.

Is this not true? Unless there is a hidden duty that lies within their job description, and their work includes other useful endeavors that aren’t just to promote their beautiful displays of map with wonderful arrays of clouds and amazing 3D graphics, their only duty lies with hurricane & tornado warning/watches. 

As a tangent, I love tangents, who in God’s hot Hell created watch/warning designations? What does that even mean? Can you attempt to create a better naming convention? Am I warned because someone has seen one or am I watching out for one that has been seen already? OR Am I watching to see if a warning pops up? OR Does a watch occur when we suspect tornadoes will occur?

…I know it hurts your message to have two W words, firstly. Then to have conflicting usages as your words: why would I watch if I haven’t been warned is opposed to why would you warn me if I’m already watching?


And all this confusion for a system of weather that will murder your whole family and threaten the foundation of your home in the splittest of a second. 

Back on the main topic for once:

Why do people still watch the weather predictions and never care about the results?

…I cannot fathom the idea that people take weather verbatim. Afterall, they are built on probability. That is basically the house betting against you every day. They give theirselves such a wide margin of error (+/- tolerances) that the errors are never caught due to the law of averages. 

…As example: day before yesterday, there was 80% chance on rain. On yesterday, yes it rained, but HOW does 80% chance of rain translate into IT WILL RAIN HARDER AND LONGER THAN IT HAS IN TWO MONTHS!!

…simple answer…

It doesn’t convey any of that message. 

…my questions…

  1. Since it actually rained at that level of wetness, do you think an 80% chance is sufficient for such magnitude?
  2. It seems that days as such, when rain starts early in the morning, (and you see that coming, right?) wouldn’t that deserve a higher percentage of prediction? A massive amount of water fell at an early time — should that not have been a 95% chance, dare I say 99.998% chance? 
  3. Why are there no predictions on quantity?

I could go on. Heck, why not make it interesting and make wagers? Wager against me with a three hour warning in my home town and you got competition otherwise I too would have to spit out low numbers like 70% chance. With a 30% chance to miss, it may take 4 days till you catch on to my strategy (probability ratios based on casual observance and smell). 

Ahhh number 4, above. Do you actually base your judgements on a selection of local rednecks who poke their head out the door for a big wiff of air? Then take a balanced average to determine your results. Cause that’s what I do everyday and it serves me well. 

But how do folks still look at these statistics and prepare their whole weekends or weeks over this crap? It changes on a daily basis, they are constantly recalculating and changing their upcoming predictions. What they thought next week will be — will morph into a new animal by the time the final day is now today. 

…It sounds like how building an aircraft gets: you move a coffee pot and the following snowball occurs:

  1. The drain line must be re-engineered to align to the drain hole that was just moved. 
  2. This causes the design surface of the cabinet to need a hole moved. 
  3. There are similar wiring issues. 
  4. There are similar issues with the surrounding cabinetry until everything is at the status quo level. 

All these things require massive doses of paperwork, engineering change orders, meetings, manager and engineer’s approvals. There will likely be some form of management risk in there. There will be some guy worried about losing his job. There will be two dozen short, angry, white guys creating swirls of chaos in several manufacturing plants around the country. Somebody may actually be fired and if not, the whipping boy gets it hard (while feeling relieved that he wasn’t actually fired — this time). 

In other words, one little thing creates a whirlwind of effect and no one knows the exact structure of the final product. But we all know one of each of these things will happen. 

In conclusion, if we already know that these things will very likely happen, why do I need Captain Obvious to tell me what may happen. Please tell me if a hurricane is three days away and moving at a pace slow enough to predict what might happen two hours away. But we know you are aweful at that too. 

…….why does the weatherman exist??

5/14/17 Sunday, 10:34am

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